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There is a lot of confusion as to what « money » really is, how it is created, and how economies end up with high or low inflation rates, and appreciating or depreciating currencies. There is a link between debt and inflation. Read this to finally understand how it is all linked and get a synthetic analysis of many individual countries and their potential for growth going forward.
I sometimes take for granted that trading is a numbers thing, because it is obvious to me and I forget that others may not fully realize the importance of trusting probabilities and mastering the psychological states that are essential to good trading. I want to make it very clear how incredibly important this so that you better understand how to make money with trading. Very important post for all traders out there.
The Fed will decide on policy this week. As explained in a previous post, in the process of evaluating and communicating the path of the policy rate for the coming 12 months, it must assess risks to growth, jobs, inflation, bubbles, and the future potential cost of a need for fast tightening if it does not tigthen now. We discuss the likely scenario in this important post. Read on to be ahead of the curve.
Many people ask me about trading currencies, forex trading, and forex trading strategies. They hear all kinds of rumours and they have this idea about it that is either too “optimistic” or, on the other extreme, they see it as “something really scary and impossible.” I will expose elements about good forex trading strategies and what a good forex trading system looks like, how currency trading works, what are the risks, and what are the challenges for the trader. If you are curious, read on, even if you know nothing at all about it or about finance or economics.
Will the Fed increase interest rates? When? How many times in 2017? What will happen with the USD and the stock market in 2017? What are FOMC members likely thinking now and what is likely to happen to Fed policy going forward? Read this post to get the insights.
As widely expected, the Fed decided to leave the key policy rate unchanged, but did signal that the general economic picture was improving. What does this mean for interest rates, the USD, and stocks going forward? Read to know!
Many market experts are calling for a market crash in 2017, including a bond market crash. They also did every year since 2012. I never did up to now, as I called steady growth and asset price inflation for 5 years. Unless a political shock comes in the USA such as an impeachment or a Euro shock such as Le Pen elected, I do not see a likely stock or bond market crash for 2017… but I DO see significant risk for 2018-2019. Read on for the full story.
Other than himself and his inability for self control, good judgement, or sound policy thinking, Trump's worst enemy is reality. In his Presidential address, the new President mentions a few things that are true and positive: the explicit recognition that the middle class is suffering and stagnating; the USA needs major infrastructure upgrading; teaching and school need to be a priority; job creation and production in the USA need to be made "attractive" for companies, etc. This is fine. However, he also implicitly suggests that the "solutions" to many problems will be found in "protection" with a military upgrade and a boosted law enforcement, along with "eradicating extremist Islam from the face of the earth." Excuse me, but: LOL! His policy agenda also suggests a general detaxation of the upper incomes and corporations. Let's explore the "collision course with reality" that this presidency is at risk of embarking on as of right now and how this can end with impeachment.
I will try to explain the frame of mind of each of these in condensed and perhaps unfairly “oversimplified” terms so that all can at least get some idea of the basic principles of these ideological schools.