Many market experts are calling for a market crash in 2017, including a bond market crash. They also did every year since 2012. I never did up to now, as I called steady growth and asset price inflation for 5 years. Unless a political shock comes in the USA such as an impeachment or a Euro shock such as Le Pen elected, I do not see a likely stock or bond market crash for 2017… but I DO see significant risk for 2018-2019. Read on for the full story.
Other than himself and his inability for self control, good judgement, or sound policy thinking, Trump's worst enemy is reality. In his Presidential address, the new President mentions a few things that are true and positive: the explicit recognition that the middle class is suffering and stagnating; the USA needs major infrastructure upgrading; teaching and school need to be a priority; job creation and production in the USA need to be made "attractive" for companies, etc. This is fine. However, he also implicitly suggests that the "solutions" to many problems will be found in "protection" with a military upgrade and a boosted law enforcement, along with "eradicating extremist Islam from the face of the earth." Excuse me, but: LOL! His policy agenda also suggests a general detaxation of the upper incomes and corporations. Let's explore the "collision course with reality" that this presidency is at risk of embarking on as of right now and how this can end with impeachment.
I will try to explain the frame of mind of each of these in condensed and perhaps unfairly “oversimplified” terms so that all can at least get some idea of the basic principles of these ideological schools.
Donald Trump President is now reality. The US Presidential Inauguration is at our doorstep and Obama is in the past. Regardless of Clinton vs Trump or Democrat vs Republican differences, regardless of the fact that Trump has already lost majority favour, there are serious challenges to be addressed in the USA and other high-income countries, and someone will have to take them head-on at one point. Obviously, Donald Trump is quite a character and does not seem to have the thick skin, maturity, wisdom, self control, or understanding of economics and geopolitics at a level sufficient to start his presidency with a solid footing that makes everyone feel reassured, but it is here and it will have to do, so lets discuss a few important things and aspects of the Trump Presidency that could be positive. This is the subject of my book "Can Trump Make America Great Again? Raging People in the Age of Automation, Offshoring, and Globalization."
Welcome to Donald Trump and Politics. In my upcoming ebook, I explain in greater detail the issues we face going forward, but I want to touch on a few of these now. Note that these issues would be largely the same had Clinton won the Presidency, but I will focus on the potential issues going forward that could be exacerbated by the Trump Presidency. The great global convergence has barely begun, and this means there is lots at stake going forward.